Summary: As of April 21–22, LME Aluminium cash settlement prices have stabilized around $3,613/tonne. Despite a slight easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the market remains in a “stress deficit” with an estimated primary aluminium shortage of 1.7 to 2.4 million tonnes for 2026. Extruders should prepare for elevated premiums and intermittent price shocks throughout the second quarter due to structural supply fragility.

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